Food Security Isn’t a Numbers Game: Not Fewer Farmers, Better Futures

Someone once told me, “For Africa to be food secure, we must reduce the number of farmers.”

At first, the statement felt counterintuitive—even unsettling. How could fewer farmers be the answer on a continent where hunger still affects hundreds of millions and agriculture employs more than half the population? But the claim stayed with me. Not because it was necessarily true, but because it forced me to ask deeper questions about the structure of agriculture in Africa—about who farms, how they farm, and why.

Today, that conversation has become more urgent than ever.

The Paradox of Plenty

Africa is home to more than 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, yet it remains a net importer of food. The continent has the potential to not only feed itself, but also contribute to global food supplies. And yet, food insecurity remains widespread, especially in rural areas where agriculture is the mainstay of life.

More than 60% of sub-Saharan Africa’s workforce is engaged in agriculture, but the sector contributes only around 15% to GDP. This disconnect reflects deep-rooted inefficiencies: fragmented landholdings, low-input and rain-fed farming, limited access to markets, and exposure to climate shocks. Cereal yields average just 1.5 tons per hectare, far below the 4 tons in Asia or 6 tons in North America. Most smallholder farmers, who cultivate plots under two hectares, are not farming by choice—they are farming because there are few viable alternatives.

In this context, the idea of reducing the number of farmers could be interpreted not as a call for displacement, but as a call for transformation.

The Case for Structural Transformation

In nearly every industrialized economy, the share of the population engaged in agriculture has fallen over time—even as food production increased. In the United States, less than 2% of the population are farmers, and yet it remains one of the world’s top food producers. This shift was driven not by abandonment of agriculture, but by rising productivity, innovation, and diversification of the economy.

If Africa were to modernize its food systems—making farming more efficient and viable while creating off-farm opportunities—then yes, the number of people who need to farm could decrease. But that’s a big “if.”

And it’s not the whole story.

The Risks of Oversimplifying

Smallholder farmers currently produce up to 80% of Africa’s food. They are central to rural livelihoods, local economies, and national food security. Reducing their numbers without a deliberate and well-supported transition would not just disrupt food systems—it could create a humanitarian crisis.

Land tenure issues, unclear policies, limited urban job markets, and weak rural infrastructure all complicate any rapid shift away from farming. In many countries, land is communally owned or inherited without formal titles. Large-scale land acquisitions—often by foreign investors—have, in some cases, displaced entire communities, leaving them without compensation or recourse.

Moreover, pushing people out of farming without creating meaningful alternatives risks fueling migration to urban slums, overburdening cities, and deepening poverty.

In short, food security is not a numbers game. It is a systems challenge—and a human one.

A Balanced Path Forward

Rather than fixating on reducing farmer numbers, the real question is: how do we make farming a profession of dignity, productivity, and choice?

Here’s what that looks like:

1. Invest in Agricultural Productivity

• Provide access to improved seeds, fertilizers, irrigation, and extension services; make them accessible and affordable.

• Scale digital tools that offer real-time data on weather, markets, and agronomic practices.

• Support climate-resilient farming techniques—like conservation agriculture and drought-resistant crops.

2. Build Efficient Market Systems

• Improve roads, storage, cold chains, and processing infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses.

• Link farmers to formal markets with transparent pricing and secure contracts.

• Promote cooperatives and farmer organizations that enhance bargaining power and economies of scale.

3. Secure Land Rights and Policy Frameworks

• Strengthen land tenure systems to enable long-term investment and stewardship. Clear, enforceable land rights incentivize long-term investment in soil health and sustainability.

• Reform agricultural subsidies, credit access, and insurance schemes to make them inclusive and fair.

4. Create Non-Farm Economic Opportunities

• Invest in rural industrialization, agro-processing, and value-added enterprises.

• Expand vocational training and entrepreneurship programs for rural youth. This is essential to absorb rural labor.

• Support urban-rural linkages that create demand for local goods and services.

5. Center Women and Youth

• Women make up nearly half of Africa’s agricultural labor force but face disproportionate barriers to resources and decision-making.

• Any strategy that leaves women behind will fail to unlock the full potential of rural communities.

• Youth must see agriculture not as a burden, but as an opportunity—through the lens of innovation, technology, and profit.

Conclusion: Not Fewer Farmers, But Better Futures

The future of Africa’s food systems is not about having fewer farmers—it’s about creating better systems for those who farm and those who don’t.

Yes, as productivity improves and economies diversify, the share of people working in agriculture may decline. But this must happen organically, through empowerment—not exclusion.

Let us reimagine agriculture not as a dead-end job of last resort, but as a dynamic sector of growth, resilience, and pride. Let us invest in the people who feed us—not to reduce their numbers, but to multiply their impact.

Because Africa will not be food secure by subtracting its farmers, it will be food secure when those farmers, fewer or many, can thrive; their lives are better, their children are fed, and their futures are full of promise.